Ψηφιακό ευρώ
Το Ευρωσύστημα προετοιμάζεται για το ενδεχόμενο έκδοσης ψηφιακού ευρώ που θα λειτουργεί συμπληρωματικά με τα τραπεζογραμμάτια και κέρματα ευρώ σε φυσική μορφή.
ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΟ ΔΕΛΤΙΟ
13 Νοεμβρίου 2025
H EKT εκδίδει το Οικονομικό Δελτίο
Αυτή η έκδοση παρουσιάζει τις οικονομικές και νομισματικές πληροφορίες στις οποίες στηρίζονται οι αποφάσεις πολιτικής του Διοικητικού Συμβουλίου. Δημοσιεύεται οκτώ φορές τον χρόνο, δύο εβδομάδες μετά από κάθε συνεδρίαση για θέματα νομισματικής πολιτικής.
Διαβάστε το νέο τεύχος
ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΟ ΔΕΛΤΙΟ
12 Νοεμβρίου 2025
Ανισότητα την περίοδο έντονης ανόδου του πληθωρισμού
Αν και οι δείκτες ανισότητας εισοδήματος, πλούτου και κατανάλωσης παρέμειναν σε γενικές γραμμές σταθεροί την περίοδο έντονης ανόδου του πληθωρισμού (2021-23), τα νοικοκυριά χαμηλού εισοδήματος αντιμετώπισαν υψηλότερο πληθωρισμό. Επίσης, ήταν πιο ευάλωτα στην άνοδο των επιτοκίων μέσω μιας μεγαλύτερης εξάρτησης σε ενυπόθηκα στεγαστικά δάνεια κυμαινόμενου επιτοκίου.
Διαβάστε το 1ο άρθρο του Οικονομικού Δελτίου
ΕΠΕΞΗΓΗΣΗ
Διαφυλάσσοντας το ευρώ
Εργαζόμαστε κάθε μέρα με σκοπό να διατηρούμε τις τιμές σταθερές, να προάγουμε ομαλές πληρωμές και να διασφαλίζουμε ότι οι τράπεζες είναι ασφαλείς και υγιείς. Διαφυλάσσουμε την αξία του ευρώ έτσι ώστε να μπορείτε να επικεντρωθείτε στις οικογένειες, στο μέλλον και στις επιχειρήσεις σας.
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- C67 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Input?Output Models
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F18 : International Economics→Trade→Trade and Environment
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
Q48 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Government Policy
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- Abstract
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- JEL Code
- F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
- 13 November 2025
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- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 13 November 2025
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- JEL Code
- J62 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Job, Occupational, and Intergenerational Mobility
J63 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Turnover, Vacancies, Layoffs
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- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2025Details
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- Evidence from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) – based on a one-off set of questions introduced in the July 2025 wave – suggests that the majority of car purchases in July 2025 were of combustion engine vehicles, followed by hybrid and fully electric cars. Most purchases were of second-hand cars, reflecting concerns about the value of new cars depreciating quickly, particularly among high-income households, as well as limited access to affordable financing options, especially among low-income households. Most respondents in the July 2025 CES wave had no plans to buy a car within the next year, with economic and financial uncertainty and a preference for alternative modes of transportation playing a role, particularly for low-income households. While demand for hybrid cars is expected to increase, interest in fully electric vehicles remains limited. Elevated economic and financial uncertainty suggests that the recovery in car demand will remain gradual and uneven, with the adoption of electric vehicles continuing at a slow pace.
- JEL Code
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L62 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Manufacturing→Automobiles, Other Transportation Equipment
- 12 November 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3151Details
- Abstract
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- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G51 : Financial Economics - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 12 November 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3150Details
- Abstract
- We study how survey-based measures of funding needs and availability influence the transmission of euro area monetary policy to investment. We first provide evidence that funding needs are primarily driven by fundamentals, while perceived funding availability captures financial conditions. Using these two measures, we assess how the effectiveness of monetary policy varies with fundamentals and financial conditions. Our results indicate that monetary policy is most effective when firms’ fundamentals are strong. In contrast, firms with favorable financial conditions exhibit a more muted investment response to monetary policy. By combining these two survey-based measures, we construct an indicator of financial constraints and show that financially constrained firms are more sensitive to monetary policy. These findings offer new light on the transmission of monetary policy to corporate investment, emphasizing not only the role of financial conditions, but also the importance of fundamentals, which are beyond the direct influence of central banks
- JEL Code
- C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 12 November 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Monetary policy affects household credit heterogeneously through multiple channels. On the supply side, monetary policy tightening is typically thought to have a more adverse effect on lower-income households. The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey supports this assumption, with lower-income households reporting tighter constraints on credit access and higher consumer loan rejection rates than households with higher incomes during the recent tightening period. That said, on the demand side, survey responses indicate that lower-income households did not reduce their mortgage loan applications, unlike higher-income households, and in fact even increased their consumer loan applications, during this tightening phase. As a result of these offsetting effects, lower-income households, unlike higher-income ones, did not report a decline in overall loan take-up at a time when borrowing conditions were less favourable. Households in lower-income brackets also increased their share of adjustable-rate mortgage loans during this period.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G51 : Financial Economics
- 12 November 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This article uses data from the Consumer Expectations Survey to examine the inflation episode of 2021-23, the mortgage rate responses and the perceived and actual effects of these developments on inequality. Public perceptions of inequality rose sharply during the inflation surge, with 73% of households reporting an increase. Cost-of-living pressures were cited as the main driver. By contrast, standard measures of income, wealth and consumption inequality calculated using data from the survey remained broadly stable in the euro area between 2022 and 2025. To better understand this divergence, personal inflation rates are constructed from consumption data to identify which income groups faced the greatest challenges in maintaining their living standards. Differences in financial decisions in response to higher interest rates, particularly the timing of loan applications and mortgage fixation periods, are also considered. Together, these mechanisms help to explain why inequality was perceived to have risen even though standard measures remained stable.
- JEL Code
- D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G51 : Financial Economics
- 11 November 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Oil prices have declined in recent months owing to a persistent oversupply in the market. A key driver has been a shift in the stance of OPEC+. The group has been increasing oil supply at a rapid pace despite already low prices, marking a clear departure from its historical role as a market stabiliser. A similar shift in behaviour occurred in 2014, when oil prices declined sharply and remained persistently low. This box evaluates the risk of a similar scenario unfolding today. While the current environment shows signs of continued OPEC-driven downward pressure on oil markets, the conditions that led to the dramatic price collapse in 2014 – in particular, robust non-OPEC supply growth – are not fully present today.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
Q47 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy Forecasting
- 11 November 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3149Details
- Abstract
- Banks can grant loans to firms bilaterally or in syndicates. We study this choice by combining bilateral loan data with syndicated loan data. We show that loan size alone does not adequately explain syndication. Instead, banks’ ability to manage risks and firm riskiness drive the choice to syndicate. Banks are more likely to syndicate loans if their risk-bearing capacity is low and if screening and monitoring come at a high cost. Syndicated loans are more expensive and more sensitive to loan risk than bilateral loans. Our findings contradict the hypothesis that reputable borrowers graduate to the syndicated loan market.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 11 November 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3148Details
- Abstract
- Monetary aggregates provide valuable information about the monetary policy transmission and the business cycle. This paper applies machine learning methods, namely Learning Vector Quantisation (LVQ) and its distinction-sensitive extension (DSLVQ), to identify turning points in euro area M1 and M3. We benchmark performance against the Bry–Boschan algorithm and standard classifiers. Our results show that LVQ detects M1 turning points with only a three-month delay, halving the six-month confirmation lag of Bry–Boschan dating. DSLVQ delivers comparable accuracy while offering interpretability: it assigns weights to the sources of broad money growth, showing that lending to households and firms, as well as Eurosystem asset purchases when present, are the main drivers of turning points in M3. The findings are robust across parameter choices, bootstrap designs, alternative performance metrics, and comparator models. These results demonstrate that machine learning can yield more timely and interpretable signals from monetary aggregates. For policymakers, this approach enhances the information set available for assessing near-term economic dynamics and understanding the transmission of monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
C63 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computational Techniques, Simulation Modeling
- 11 November 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Debate over China’s growing trade surplus has resurfaced amid US-China trade tensions, geoeconomic shifts and global imbalances. This box shows that the surplus reflects two distinct dynamics: persistently weak imports and surging exports. On the import side, structural policies promoting domestic substitution, trade restrictions and sluggish demand have curbed demand for foreign goods. On the export side, subdued domestic demand has led firms to redirect excess production capacity abroad, consistent with the “vent-for-surplus” mechanism. Sectoral evidence shows that this channel outweighs tariff-related trade diversion.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
O53 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Asia including Middle East
- 10 November 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2025Details
- Abstract
- In the latest round of the European Commission’s biannual Standard Eurobarometer survey, a record 83% of euro area respondents expressed support for the euro – the highest level since the introduction of the single currency. Using the survey microdata, we show that this rise is broad-based across countries and sociodemographic groups, and that cross-country differences have narrowed significantly. Respondents who reported experiencing more of the benefits of the euro – such as easier price comparisons, business, travel or banking – are more likely to view the euro as “a good thing” for the EU. Our findings suggest that euro area citizens have now fully embraced the euro. Sustaining this high level of support will depend on ensuring that the euro continues to deliver tangible benefits and remains fit for a world shaped by digital and geopolitical transformation.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- 10 November 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3147Details
- Abstract
- Collateral reuse in repo markets helps entities meet short-term funding needs, maintain market efficiency, and anchor collateral valuations, although it creates risks through interconnectedness. A prominent view in the literature is that securities dealers use their market position to obtain temporary free-cash wedges from differences in collateral requirements when reusing collateral, so-called “liquidity windfalls”. By affecting dealers’ funding structures, such windfalls could influence yield curve determination, leverage, and monetary policy transmission. Yet the evidence has been largely theoretical, with limited empirical work. Using a novel, confidential regulatory dataset on European Securities Financing Transactions, this study helps fill that gap. We find that about 11.6% of European repo transaction volume relies on reused securities, averaging more than 49 billion euros per day. Moreover, contrary to the liquidity windfalls hypothesis, dealers do not seem to systematically obtain extra liquidity through collateral reuse in repos.
- JEL Code
- G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 10 November 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3146Details
- Abstract
- We study heterogeneity in households’ credit across nine European countries (Belgium, Spain, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, and Slovakia) during 2022-2024 using granular credit register data. We first document substantial between- and within-country variation in mortgage and consumer lending by borrower age, loan maturity, and interest rate fixation. We then quantify the passthrough of the ECB’s recent tightening cycle to household borrowing costs, and assess its heterogeneous impact across households. Pass-through is nearly complete for mortgages (around 0.9) but considerably weaker for consumer credit (around 0.4). While mortgage pass-through is relatively homogeneous across countries, consumer credit shows pronounced cross-country differences that cannot be explained by borrower or loan characteristics. Younger households face stronger mortgage pass-through but weaker consumer credit pass-through relative to older borrowers, and longer maturities are associated with stronger pass-through in both credit markets.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 10 November 2025
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 136Details
- Abstract
- Banks trade off short-term losses on deposits against long-term profits from cross-selling other products to new depositors. This strategy is especially attractive when policy rates are low and future sales are more valuable. Therefore, deposit rates move less than policy rates: banks keep them relatively higher when policy rates fall, and relatively lower when policy rates rise. As returns on other financial assets follow policy rates more closely, this makes deposits relatively less attractive for depositors at higher policy rates. Therefore, policy rate hikes lead to a reduction in deposits, which are the key source of refinancing for bank loans. This cuts loan supply, supporting the transmission of monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
D43 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G51 : Financial Economics
- 7 November 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
Επιτόκια
| Διευκόλυνση αποδοχής καταθέσεων | 2,00 % |
| Πράξεις κύριας αναχρηματοδότησης (σταθερού επιτοκίου) | 2,15 % |
| Διευκόλυνση οριακής χρηματοδότησης | 2,40 % |
Ρυθμός πληθωρισμού
Περισσότερα για τον πληθωρισμόΣυναλλαγματικές ισοτιμίες
| USD | US dollar | 1.1619 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 179.57 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.88190 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9244 |
Χρηματοπιστωτική σταθερότητα
Τα καθήκοντά μας Θεσμικό πλαίσιο Επισκόπηση Χρηματοπιστωτικής Σταθερότητας Μέτρα μακροπροληπτικής πολιτικήςΔραστηριότητες αγορών
Πράξεις ανοικτής αγοράς Προγράμματα αγοράς στοιχείων ενεργητικούΔανεισμός τίτλων στο πλαίσιο του PSPPΔΕΝ ΕΧΕΤΕ ΕΙΔΙΚΕΣ ΓΝΩΣΕΙΣ; ΔΙΑΒΑΣΤΕ ΤΙΣ ΕΠΕΞΗΓΗΣΕΙΣ ΜΑΣ
ΜΑΘΕΤΕ ΠΕΡΙΣΣΟΤΕΡΑ
Τι είναι η Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα;